Average Win Size +5.00%
Average Loss Size -3.00%
Break-Even Win Rate
37.5%
You need to win at least 37.5% of your trades to be profitable with these win/loss sizes.
UNPROFITABLE ZONE
PROFITABLE ZONE
37.5%
0% Win Rate 100% Win Rate
Your Current Win Rate
What's Your Actual Win Rate? 50.0%
+1.90% Expected Return Per Trade
TargetHit AI signals average +1.90% expected return per trade. 2,900+ tracked signals. Every result publicly auditable.
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Why Break-Even Win Rate Matters More Than You Think

Most traders obsess over their win rate — "I need to win 70% of my trades!" But that's the wrong metric. A 70% win rate with poor risk/reward will still blow your account. A 40% win rate with strong R:R will print money.

The break-even win rate is the minimum win percentage you need to be profitable given your average win and loss sizes. It's calculated using this formula: Break-Even WR = Avg Loss / (Avg Win + Avg Loss)

For example, if you average +5% on wins and -3% on losses, your break-even win rate is 37.5%. Win more than 37.5% of your trades, and you're profitable. Win less, and you're slowly bleeding money.

Why R:R Ratio Matters More Than Win Rate

Consider these two traders:

Trader A sounds impressive at first — 70% wins! But their poor risk management (risking 5% to make 2%) means they're unprofitable. Trader B, despite losing 60% of trades, has a strong R:R ratio and is consistently profitable.

This is why TargetHit focuses on expected return per trade (+1.90%) rather than win rate alone. Expected return = (Win Rate × Avg Win) - (Loss Rate × Avg Loss). It's the only number that matters.

How TargetHit Edges Perform

TargetHit AI signals average +4.62% on wins and -2.44% on losses across 2,900+ tracked trades. This gives a break-even win rate of just 34.5%. With an actual 61.5% win rate, the system operates far above break-even — resulting in +1.90% expected return per trade.

Every signal is publicly tracked from entry to exit. No cherry-picking. No hiding losses. Just transparent math.